Report European Commission on Demographic Scenarios for the EU: Migration, Population and Education

Demographic changes are long-term, and they occur at a steady and predictable pace. Thus, building demographic scenarios may help evidence-based planning for the future.

The report makes projections for 2060 to understand the long-term impact for the EU of trends in fertility, mortality, migration, and changes in education levels and labour market participation. It analyses alternative scenarios that may limit or counteract the undesirable consequences of current trends.

Key Findings

  • Europeans are living longer, but they can also lead more productive lives.
  • The EU’s future labour force will be smaller and better educated.
  • With an ageing population, the EU will need to support a higher share of people over age 65 than ever before. To do this, increasing labour force participation is by far the most effective policy.
  • Higher fertility or more immigration are not enough to cope with the challenges of population ageing.
  • When EU citizens move towards western Europe in search of higher wages or better employment opportunities, it exacerbates population ageing and population loss in the EU countries they leave behind.
  • If a country sees a large number of its highly-skilled workers go abroad to work, the remaining population will be older and have a lower potential for productivity.
  • Increasing girls’ education is key for the future of population growth in Africa and the world.

The report is an outcome of the work of Centre of Expertise on Population and Migration (CEPAM), which was founded by the European Commission and the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA).

You can download the complete report here.